For a second time, quarterly gross
domestic product (GDP) fell in Canada. Its growth rate was -.1% the first
quarter and -.3% the second quarter of this year. Does it mean Canada is in
recession since, basically, a recession is defined as a period of at least two consecutive
falls in quarterly GDP? I still doubt it! [here]
A look at monthly data shows that
GDP grew by .5% in June. This is well above its average monthly growth rate,
which is .21%. This high growth rate was actually expected since, as we knew in advance, unemployment
rate in June, 6.5%, was below its seasonal average.
GDP, seasonally adjusted, Canada, 1997:M1-2015:M6
|
What the third
quarter of the year will be like? Information available now to make predictions
is: unemployment and inflation rates. Unemployment rate rose to 7.1% in July.
But there is nothing worrying about this since it is still below its seasonal
average and it will probably fall again by September. Consumer prices also rose by .2% in July,
which is a sign that the final domestic demand is increasing.
The data used are available here.
The data used are available here.
No comments:
Post a Comment